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Almost Time to Play Ball!

Earnings Preview 7/09/10

 

Next week is the official kick off for second quarter earnings. There will be just 77 firms reporting next week, but that includes 23 S&P 500 firms. What is lacking in quantity of firms reporting is more than made up by quality. The firms reporting are some of the biggest and most important bellwethers of the economy and slice across a wide spectrum of industries.

 

As always, leading off will be Alcoa (AA), but the lineup includes heavy hitters like Bank of America (BAC), CSX Corp (CSX), Google (GOOG), General Electric (GE), Intel (INTC), J.P. Morgan (JPM) and Yum! Brands (YUM). While it will not be definitive, by the end of the week we should have a pretty good idea about how the second quarter earnings season is going to shape up.

 

 

In addition to the start of earnings season, there will be a fairly heavy dose of economic data, starting with the twin deficits on Tuesday and including important reports on inflation and industrial production. We also get a glimpse into the thinking at the Federal Reserve when the minutes of their last meeting are released.

 

Monday

 

* No reports of significance.

 

 

Tuesday

 

* The trade deficit is expected to be unchanged in May at $40.3 billion relative to April. It is the trade deficit, not the budget deficit, that drives how indebted we are to the rest of the world. About half of our trade deficit is due to our oil import bill.

* The Budget Deficit for June is expected to come in at $72.0 billion.

 

 

Wednesday

 

* Retail sales are expected to have declined by 0.3% om June, on top of a 1.2% decline in May. This is a very broad measure of sales, and includes auto dealerships as well as the malls. Excluding autos sales are expected to have declined by 0.1% after a 0.8% decline in May.

* The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting minutes become available, which provides a look at the thinking behind the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged. It includes the economic forecasts of the Fed staff as well. No hard number to forecast, but it makes for some very interesting reading.

 

 

Thursday

 

* Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance come out. They fell 21,000 in the last week, to 454,000. After a huge downtrend from mid-April through the end of 2009, initial claims have become very erratic so far in 2010. Look for them to rise again next week, as we are now near the bottom of the range they have been in for several months. Longer term, we have made good progress, but not good enough. We probably need for weekly claims (and the four-week moving average of them) to get down to closer to 400,000 to signal that the economy is adding enough jobs to make a dent in the unemployment rate. We are a lot closer now than we were last spring when they were running north of 640,000 on a consistent basis, but still have a ways to go.

* Continuing claims have also been in a steep downtrend of late. Last week they fell by 224,000 to 4.413 million, and down 2.514 million from a year ago. Part of the longer term decline is due to people simply exhausting their regular state benefits, which run out after 26 weeks. Federally paid extended claims fell by 344,000 to 4.577 million. However that is due to even the extended claims running out as a bill to further extend benefits has been stalled in the Senate. Looking at just the regular continuing claims numbers is a serious mistake. They only include a little over half of the unemployed now given the unprecedentedly high duration of unemployment figures. A better measure is the total number of people getting unemployment benefits, currently at 8.990 million, which is down 568,000 from last week. The total number of people getting benefits is now, for the first time, below year-ago levels with a drop of 866,000. Make sure to look at both sets of numbers! Many of the press reports will not, but we will here at Zacks.

* The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to have risen by 0.1%, partially reversing a 0.3% decline in May. Inflation is extremely well contained, and indeed the bigger threat the economy faces right now is deflation. Stripping out food and energy prices to get to the core PPI, it is expected to have also risen by 0.1% after a rise of 0.2% in May.

* The Empire State Manufacturing index, one of the regional variations on the ISM type data is, expected to have fallen to 18.5 in Ju7ne from 19.57. That would indicate that manufacturing activity in New York State is still increasing (and positive reading indicates expansion) but at a slower rate than in May. In contrast, the Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rise to 8.6 from 8.0. The level of growth is lower in the mid Atlantic states than in New York, but it is expected to show a slight acceleration from May.

* Industrial Production growth is expected to have slowed to 0.2% in June from a robust 1.3% growth in May. However be careful to also look at the growth in Manufacturing output as well. The total Industrial production numbers include Utility output, which is often as much a function of the weather as it is of economic activity.

* Capacity Utilization is expected to have edged up to 74.2% from 74.1%. As with the Industrial Production numbers, be sure to look at the utilization in Manufacturing, as the overall number can be skewed by Utilities and the weather. The overall level of utilization is much improved from a year ago, but still at very depressed levels. Low levels of capacity utilization probably have far more to do with why businesses are not spending than any uncertainty about taxes and regulation. Why buy new machines when your existing machines are sitting idle? Why put up a new office building when the one across the street is half vacant?

 

 

Friday

 

* Inflation at the Consumer level is also expected to be very well contained. The Headline Consumer Price index (CPI) is expected to be unchanged in June after falling 0.2% in May. If food and energy costs are stripped out to get core inflation the index is expected to have risen 0.1%, matching its rise in May. Housing makes up more than 30% of the overall index and about 40^ of the core index and is a key reason that inflation is very well contained. Indeed the bigger risk to the economy at this point is deflation. The low inflation numbers give the Fed plenty of leeway to keep interest rates low for a very long time. Indeed they argue that the Fed should be even more aggressively handle monetary policy though quantitative easing.

* The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is expected to fall in June to a reading of 72.0 from 76.0. In theory the consumer sentiment and confidence indexes should be important since the consumer comprises 71% of the economy. However there is often a disconnect between what people say on these surveys and their actual behavior. Generally lower gasoline prices and higher stock prices drive the number higher, and higher gasoline and a lower stick market drive it down. Since the last survey, gas prices are down, but so is the stock market.

About the Author

Dirk van Dijk, CFA is the Chief Equity Strategist for Zacks.com. With more than 25 years investment experience he has become a popular commentator appearing in the Wall Street Journal and on CNBC. Dirk is also the Editor in charge of the market-beating Zacks Strategic Investor service. For more information, visit http://www.zacks.com.

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